Heisman odds put Darian Mensah on top entering Week 10
Miami quarterback Darian Mensah has overtaken Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith as the Heisman betting favorite entering Week 10, per DraftKings.
Why Heisman odds are shifting this week
Heisman odds have Miami quarterback Darian Mensah out front entering Week 10, with Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith and Miami receiver Malachi Toney bunched close behind him. ESPN's betting story, citing DraftKings, lists Mensah at +156, Smith at +290 and Toney at +305. Yahoo Sports, reporting its own odds snapshot, had Mensah at +110, Smith at +275 and Toney at +325, with no other player better than 12-1.
The race looked settled a few weeks ago. Smith was the clear favorite for most of the season on the strength of huge receiving games for Ohio State. Two things changed that. Ohio State lost its second game of the season, 30-18 to USC, and Smith has gone three straight games without reaching 100 receiving yards. At the same time, Mensah has kept Miami undefeated and Toney has turned into a second Miami name in the conversation.
Mensah's case and the test at Notre Dame
Mensah's numbers are hard to argue with. He has thrown 25 touchdown passes against one interception, and he leads the nation in completion percentage and passing touchdowns. Miami is undefeated behind him. The question hanging over his candidacy is the schedule, since Miami has not yet played a ranked opponent.
That changes this week. Miami plays at Notre Dame, the kind of game that can either confirm Mensah's case or give voters a reason to keep looking elsewhere. A strong showing there would pair his statistics with a signature win against a ranked team.
Smith's slide and the Sayin injury
Smith's drop in the odds traces back further than the USC loss. Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin was hurt against Indiana, and freshman Luke Fahey made his first start in the loss to USC. Fahey leaned on Smith all game, Smith caught 10 passes for 83 yards and a touchdown, and no other Ohio State receiver caught more than two of Fahey's other completions.
Smith is still putting up a season. He has 62 catches for 1,067 yards and 13 touchdowns, and he set the Big Ten record for career receiving touchdowns in that USC game. Earlier in the year he had a stretch of 23 catches for 423 yards across two games. But three straight games under 100 yards is a different story than the one voters were telling about him earlier this season. He still has games against Oregon and Michigan left to make his case again.
Toney and Miami's two-man problem
Toney's case has grown alongside Mensah's. He had 194 receiving yards against Pittsburgh and two touchdowns at North Carolina, and his season totals sit close to Smith's. The complication is that almost every big Toney game is also a big Mensah game, since one is throwing to the other. If Toney catches three touchdowns at Notre Dame, Mensah probably has at least three touchdown passes to go with it, which leaves voters sorting out which of the two deserves more credit for those plays.
History offers some precedent for a receiver winning over a well-regarded quarterback. Travis Hunter won the award in 2024 while also playing cornerback, and Desmond Howard won it in 1991. For now, the Heisman odds say the race runs through Miami's backfield and receiving corps and through Ohio State's receiver room, and Week 10 is when at least one of those cases gets tested against a ranked opponent.
Facts per ESPN, Yahoo Sports. Opinion is the taproom's.